Degla

BOKING STILL winning.

So the surveys said, as reported in a story here by Ashley Manabat. 

But of course, dummy. So since when did Boking Morales ever lose?

Not since the 1992 polls, after we wrote in The Voice that piece that was cut-and-pasted in the old style, Xeroxed by the thousands, and distributed as a damning pamphlet by his rivals. Its head: Boking will not win!

In all the elections he entered hence, Boking never suffered defeat, notwithstanding the electoral protest of perennial antagonist, the now departed non-retreating-non-surrendering Anthony Dee, in 2001 decided to his favor only after Boking had served practically the whole term.

No election survey from 1995 to this latest one from some firm called The Probe  ever indicated a loss for Boking. So, he’s set to sweetly smile and charm his way to city hall again?

Not yet. Even totally nullifying the formidable forces now arrayed against him. Aye, we go here by surveys too.

Where Boking polled 58 percent in The Probe survey, his most visible rival, Board Member Cris Garbo managed only 16 percent, falling even behind one Noel Castro with 17.3 percent.

Here’s the catch. Where Boking never lost in any survey since 1995, Garbo never won in any survey since he joined elective politics as municipal council candidate that year too. To the contrary though, Garbo never lost any election he joined – councilor, board member, vice mayor, board member. Despite what the surveys said, to iterate with emphasis and impress upon everyone Garbo’s own phenomenal political performance.

Truly interesting whom the degla impacts, inflicts in Mabalacat City this May.

Simply, degla means odds, defined as “the ratio between the amounts staked by the parties to a bet, based on the expected probability either way.”

It comes too as “the law of averages.” In the simplest application in cara y cruz or the coin flip: Rizal’s face has come up three consecutive times, the law of averages holds it’s the Bangko Sentral logo that’s due to show in the next throw.   

The law of averages is what mathematicians would rather call an “erroneous generalization” of the law of large numbers, which goes thus: “the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out, given enough trials or instances.”

Still, many Filipinos hold degla almost, if not quite, gospel truth. Witness the depth of study to which jueteng, ­er, STL bettors subject the salida-bola – the ledger of winning combinations dating to months on end – before they decide on their own combo.

Degla holds keen interest in Angeles City too.

One. The first Pamintuan-Nepomuceno team-up worked wonders in 1995 – Ed as mayor, Blueboy as vice mayor. So will its reprise – Ed now with Blueboy’s nephew Matthew Bryan – be as triumphant?

Two. The Iglesia ni Cristo vote is a sine qua non in the mayoralty race in the city.

Candidate Sen. Lito Lapid has always been supported by the INC in his election forays.

Will he still have the bloc-votes to back him up for the mayorship this time?

The more interesting question: Will he win even with the INC blot, er, bloc?     

As much for Leon Guerrero as for the INC is the degla at play here.

Three. About EdPam, the astute Ashley Manabat noted a degla worth considering.

There is in the mayor’s camp now one whom the Zaldy Ampatuan doppelganger remembers as having publicly predicted in 2010 that EdPam did not stand a chance against the incumbent Blueboy. And then again, in 2013, that Tarzan Lazatin would landslide EdPam.

“The contrary happened in both elections, EdPam trouncing both rivals by avalanches,” Ashley could not help stressing. “Now that he’s saying EdPam will win, don’t bet yet on still-charismatic Lapid losing.”

Alas, Ashley could not find any wood to knock on while saying it.

No, political strategist par excellence Alexander Sangalang Cauguiran would have none of that. He’d rather hold on to his own degla for an EdPam victory, as proven in 2010 and 2013: three acronyms with three letters each – ABE, INC, STL.

Why, by the numbers alone, 3-3-3, that’s three times lucky. That, it does not take a numerologist to see.   

Pompyang tres and nueve-veinte siete. Some ominous anuncio there. Got to find the nearest cobrador. Make it a tumboc wager for higher winnings.      

Awww.