Odds evened

AN ERA ends.

Marino “Boking” Morales bowed out of the mayorship of Mabalacay City Monday, subjugating himself to the writ of execution served him by the Department of the Interior and Local Government.

“Cease and desist from performing the functions as mayor…” the writ so ordered. This, pursuant to the resolution en banc of the Commission on Elections upholding its First Division’s earlier resolution disqualifying Boking from running in the 2016 elections, having served beyond the prescribed terms of office.

It was the polls’ tail-ending mayoralty bet Pyra Lucas that filed SPA Case No. 16-0001 which led to Boking’s ouster. No, Lucas will not reap the top reward for her dogged determination to dislodge the mayor.   

It is Crisostomo Garbo who – sans Boking – garnered the highest number of votes at 17,710 that the writ ordered to be proclaimed by the special city board of canvassers as the “duly elected mayor of Mabalacat City.”

Garbo’s coronation set this June 27, 3 p.m., at the Comelec Session Hall, 8^th Floor of the Palacio del Governador, Intramuros, Manila.

An era begins.

Of a new political rivalry. Count Boking out at Garbo’s own peril.

Why, the so-called “Morales Doctrine” – of Boking having twice trounced the three-term limit, served one more after, and is into the first year of yet another, mercifully (or mercilessly, depending on where you stand) cut by Monday’s writ – stands out in any book of record, the Guinness’ and Ripley’s Believe It Or Not included.

A full generation of Mabalacquenos knows but one mayor – Boking. His twenty-two years in power is no mean feat in political longevity. Marcos, from his election in 1965 to his ouster in 1986, ruled twenty-one years. And he even declared martial law to keep himself in power!    

Interesting the coming political unraveling in Mabalacat City.

Nothing prescient but purely coincidental, if serendipitous, turns out now this Zona piece of April 19, 2016 titled Degla precisely on the Boking-Garbo rivalry.  

BOKING STILL winning.

So the surveys said, as reported in a story here by Ashley Manabat. 

But of course, dummy. So since when did Boking Morales ever lose?

Not since the 1992 polls, after we wrote in The Voice that piece that was cut-and-pasted in the old style, Xeroxed by the thousands, and distributed as a damning pamphlet by his rivals. Its head: Boking will not win!

In all the elections he entered hence, Boking never suffered defeat, notwithstanding the electoral protest of perennial antagonist, the now departed non-retreating-non-surrendering Anthony Dee, in 2001 decided to his favor only after Boking had served practically the whole term.

No election survey from 1995 to this latest one from some firm called The Probe ever indicated a loss for Boking. So, he’s set to sweetly smile and charm his way to city hall again?

Not yet. Even totally nullifying the formidable forces now arrayed against him. Aye, we go here by surveys too.

Where Boking polled 58 percent in The Probe survey, his most visible rival, Board Member Cris Garbo managed only 16 percent, falling even behind one Noel Castro with 17.3 percent.

Here’s the catch. Where Boking never lost in any survey since 1995, Garbo never won in any survey since he joined elective politics as municipal council candidate that year too. To the contrary though, Garbo never lost any election he joined – councilor, board member, vice mayor, board member. Despite what the surveys said, to iterate with emphasis and impress upon everyone Garbo’s own phenomenal political performance.

Truly interesting whom the degla impacts, inflicts in Mabalacat City this May.

Simply, degla means odds, defined as “the ratio between the amounts staked by the parties to a bet, based on the expected probability either way.”

It comes too as “the law of averages.” In the simplest application in cara y cruz or the coin flip: Rizal’s face has come up three consecutive times, the law of averages holds it’s the Bangko Sentral logo that’s due to show in the next throw.   

The law of averages is what mathematicians would rather call an “erroneous generalization” of the law of large numbers, which goes thus: “the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out, given enough trials or instances.”

Still, many Filipinos hold degla almost, if not quite, gospel truth. Witness the depth of study to which jueteng, ­er, STL bettors subject the salida-bola – the ledger of winning combinations dating to months on end – before they decide on their own combo…

SO THE odds went Boking’s way at the polls, but evened out for Garbo at the Comelec.

Beyond degla, I find something here worth the Graeco-Roman classical studies.

Boking’s dogmatic vox populi, vox dei – the voice of the people is the voice of god – clashing with Garbo’s deus ex machina – god from the machine.

Oh, you know what I mean.