Tuesday, March 15, 2016

The endgame


IN THE end, it will be Jojo Binay versus Mar Roxas. And Bongbong Marcos, all his lonesome, by a mile.

More fearsome than fearless are these forecasts of Filosofo Facundo, a seasoned political analyst who asked to hide behind that presumptuous name lest he be hanged in shame.

Facundo’s prognostication goes against the tidal trend cresting from the recent survey results, the Social Weather Stations’ particularly, showing Sen. Grace Poe leading with 27 percent, up three percent from her February’s number of 24.

Erstwhile topper VP Binay got 24 percent, down by five from the previous survey's 29.

LP standard bearer Roxas is top gainer, his number increasing by four percentage points to 22.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte’s numbers slipped down by three percentage points to 21.

Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago kept her number at four percent, and remained tailender.

With the SWS survey's ±2-point margin of error, even the unseasoned analyst will see Poe and Binay statistically tied at the top there. As well as the overlap in the  numbers of Binay, Roxas, and Duterte.

Meaning, Facundo says, any of the top four can make it all the way to the presidency. So, where’s his Binay-versus-Roxas finale coming from?

In a tight presidential race, the winning factor boils down to organization and war chest. These obtain only in Roxas – with the still-ruling LP, and in Binay – with the organized opposition, not to mention his nationwide APO fraternity and the sister cities he developed through the years as Makati mayor.

Poe’s endorsement by Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist Peoples’ Coalition found as much enthusiasm as enmity among the party members.

All Duterte can boast of in terms of organization is a “ragtag rabble of rabid ranters.” That phrase is Facundo’s, not mine. Just to clear myself of any offense to Duterte-diehard family and friends.

When push comes to shove, more precisely in the case of the presidency, when the heat of battle turns infernal, he who wields the well-oiled political machinery and the limitless largesse will triumph.

For the administration candidate – Roxas in this instance – given elections past hereabouts, an extra plus factor. In fact, the BIGGEST factor to victory – deus ex machina. God from the machine. In 2013 mintage, “Hocus-PCOS.”

So, still in search for any meaning to all the current babbling at the Commission on Elections lately? Better look for the motives, Sir.

So Sen. Chiz Escudero upped his numbers by two percentage points to 28 in the latest SWS polls.

So Sen. Bongbong Marcos remained static with 26 percent while LP’s Leni Robredo leaped by five percent, to 24, and, again the survey’s ±2-point margin of error made a virtual statistical tie of the three vice presidential wannabes.

Already relegated as also-rans are Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano at 11 percent, a drop of five points from the previous survey; Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV at six percent; and Sen, Gringo Honasan at five. Their Warholian 15-minuter fame is up.

Robredo’s surge – at the perfect time, and hoped to continue up to the close of the campaign – has tantalized her camp to now project her as the woman to beat in the VP race.

Indulge them with their illusions. That’s Facundo again, not me.

Marcos’ numbers may have plateaued but the dynamics of campaign politics goes beyond survey numbers.

Of all the presidential candidates, Marcos, arguably, has the best in machinery and money. Unarguably, the most expansive political base.

Marcos Loyalists are alive and well – even increasing with the “historical revision” of the Marcos years served to and lapped up by the young generation who couldn’t have known any better, having been unconceived of at the time of the dictatorship.

Needless to say, money, no matter how obtained, is synonymous to Marcos.

The Solid North, notwithstanding some cracks, have remained Marcos’ holy ground. That’s practically three regions – Ilocos, Cagayan and the Cordilleras.

Eastern Visayas – the Samar and Leyte provinces -- remains Romualdez country.

In Mindanao, the old royal families as well as the now-entrenched political warlords owe some debt of gratitude to the beneficence of the Great Ferdinand. Witness how the Junior has been bestowed the title of “datu” by just about every clan and tribe.

Why, even Mindanao’s purported darling, Duterte, has publicly endorsed the candidacy of Marcos. Did he not, before the media and the Marcoses in Ilocos, say that he would cede the presidency to Marcos when he failed to solve criminality in his first three to six months in office?

So, are we in for a 1969 redux, when reverberated the cry: “All over the land, it’s again Ferdinand”? Albeit his Junior, and in a different post, this time?

The frenzy with which those “No to BBM” movements and “Never Again to a Marcos” coalitions were organized only made an affirmation of what they sought to deny.

Binay or Roxas. Certainly, Marcos.

Fearsome, yeah. To others, simply awesome.   

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