IN THE end, it will be Jojo
Binay versus Mar Roxas. And Bongbong Marcos, all his lonesome, by a mile.
More fearsome than
fearless are these forecasts of Filosofo Facundo,
a seasoned political analyst who asked to hide behind that presumptuous name
lest he be hanged in shame.
Facundo’s prognostication
goes against the tidal trend cresting from the recent survey results, the
Social Weather Stations’ particularly, showing Sen. Grace Poe leading with 27
percent, up three percent from her February’s number of 24.
Erstwhile topper VP Binay
got 24 percent, down by five from the previous survey's 29.
LP standard bearer Roxas is
top gainer, his number increasing by four percentage points to 22.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo
Duterte’s numbers slipped down by three percentage points to 21.
Sen. Miriam
Defensor-Santiago kept her number at four percent, and remained tailender.
With the SWS survey's
±2-point margin of error, even the unseasoned analyst will see Poe and Binay
statistically tied at the top there. As well as the overlap in the numbers of Binay, Roxas, and Duterte.
Meaning, Facundo says, any
of the top four can make it all the way to the presidency. So, where’s his
Binay-versus-Roxas finale coming from?
In a tight presidential
race, the winning factor boils down to organization and war chest. These obtain
only in Roxas – with the still-ruling LP, and in Binay – with the organized
opposition, not to mention his nationwide APO fraternity and the sister cities
he developed through the years as Makati mayor.
Poe’s endorsement by
Danding Cojuangco’s Nationalist Peoples’ Coalition found as much enthusiasm as
enmity among the party members.
All Duterte can boast of
in terms of organization is a “ragtag rabble of rabid ranters.” That phrase is
Facundo’s, not mine. Just to clear myself of any offense to Duterte-diehard
family and friends.
When push comes to shove,
more precisely in the case of the presidency, when the heat of battle turns
infernal, he who wields the well-oiled political machinery and the limitless
largesse will triumph.
For the administration
candidate – Roxas in this instance – given elections past hereabouts, an extra
plus factor. In fact, the BIGGEST factor to victory – deus ex machina. God from the machine. In 2013 mintage, “Hocus-PCOS.”
So, still in search for
any meaning to all the current babbling at the Commission on Elections lately?
Better look for the motives, Sir.
So Sen. Chiz Escudero
upped his numbers by two percentage points to 28 in the latest SWS polls.
So Sen. Bongbong Marcos
remained static with 26 percent while LP’s Leni Robredo leaped by five percent,
to 24, and, again the survey’s ±2-point margin of error made a virtual
statistical tie of the three vice presidential wannabes.
Already relegated as also-rans
are Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano at 11 percent, a drop of five points from the
previous survey; Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV at six percent; and Sen, Gringo
Honasan at five. Their Warholian 15-minuter fame is up.
Robredo’s surge – at the
perfect time, and hoped to continue up to the close of the campaign – has
tantalized her camp to now project her as the woman to beat in the VP race.
Indulge them with their
illusions. That’s Facundo again, not me.
Marcos’ numbers may have
plateaued but the dynamics of campaign politics goes beyond survey numbers.
Of all the presidential
candidates, Marcos, arguably, has the best in machinery and money. Unarguably,
the most expansive political base.
Marcos Loyalists are alive
and well – even increasing with the “historical revision” of the Marcos years
served to and lapped up by the young generation who couldn’t have known any
better, having been unconceived of at the time of the dictatorship.
Needless to say, money, no
matter how obtained, is synonymous to Marcos.
The Solid North,
notwithstanding some cracks, have remained Marcos’ holy ground. That’s
practically three regions – Ilocos, Cagayan and the Cordilleras.
Eastern Visayas – the
Samar and Leyte provinces -- remains Romualdez country.
In Mindanao, the old royal
families as well as the now-entrenched political warlords owe some debt of
gratitude to the beneficence of the Great Ferdinand. Witness how the Junior has
been bestowed the title of “datu” by just about every clan and tribe.
Why, even Mindanao’s
purported darling, Duterte, has publicly endorsed the candidacy of Marcos. Did
he not, before the media and the Marcoses in Ilocos, say that he would cede the
presidency to Marcos when he failed to solve criminality in his first three to
six months in office?
So, are we in for a 1969
redux, when reverberated the cry: “All over the land, it’s again Ferdinand”?
Albeit his Junior, and in a different post, this time?
The frenzy with which
those “No to BBM” movements and “Never Again to a Marcos” coalitions were
organized only made an affirmation of what they sought to deny.
Binay or Roxas. Certainly,
Marcos.
Fearsome, yeah. To others, simply awesome.
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